I predict that the nation-wide popular vote will be too close to call, but that it won’t matter because President Obama will win a clear Electoral College victory. I think Obama sweeps the Great Lakes states (except Indiana) and Romney sweeps the South. The final Electoral College count will be Obama 281 and Romney 257.
We’ll know in (hopefully) 36 hours how right or wrong I was in my predictions. Note that Obama could lose 10 Electoral College points I’m predicting he’ll get and could still win the election. That means he could lose Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), or New Hampshire (4) and still be fine. If I’m wrong on Ohio, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, then Obama could be in big trouble. Of course, if Romney loses Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia, then it’s probably all over for him.